Development of Large Fire Judgement Model Using Lofistic Regression Equation
2013
Lee, B.D., Korea Forest Research Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Kim, K.G., Korea Forest Research Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
To mitigate forest fire damage, it is needed to concentrate suppression resources on the fire having a high probability to become large in the initial stage. The objective of this study is to develop the large fire judgement model which can estimate large fire possibility index between the fire size and the related factors such as weather, terrain, and fuel. The results of logistic regression equation indicated that temperature, wind speed, continuous drought days, slope variance, forest area were related to the large fire possibility positively but elevation has negative relationship. This model may help decision-making about size of suppression resources, local residents evacuation and suppression priority.
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