Scandinavian horse industry – future scenarios and foresight analysis

As in most industrialized countries, the horse number declined in Norway and Sweden as agriculture and forestry became mechanized. The number of horses was probably at its lowest around 1970. In 2012, there were 362 700 horses in Sweden and 100 000 to 125 000 horses in Norway or 39 horses per 1000 inhabitants in Sweden and 20-25 in Norway. The Swedish figure is high by international comparisons. A few horses are still used in agriculture and forestry, but today most horses are used for other purposes, both commercial and for leisure. The commercial horse sector consists of i.a. trotting and horseracing, riding schools, and boarding activities, and has been regarded as a possible contributor to rural development by the agricultural authorities in both countries. Based on a literature review important drivers for supply and demand of horse related services and development of the horse industry were identified. On the demand side, fashion and trends were regarded as important. Trends include population growth and demographic changes, economic liberalization, animal welfare concerns etc. Stochastic incidents, such as the financial crisis in 2008-12, are also of importance. The demand for equine services might be more elastic to changes in income than the demand for other farm products (Bailey et al. 2000). The horse industry could experience a growth if income per capita increases, but also a serious decline in a recession. Costs are important for the supply of horse-related services. Many horse services are labour intensive, and the costs are closely related to the development of wages. Tighter regulations regarding animal welfare and manure handling might also increase costs. Especially in urban and semi-urban areas conflicts on use of area and on manure handling might arise. Recent scenarios for the agricultural sectors do not indicate development that would drastically affect the cost of feed (Sundström et al. 2014) in the Scandinavian countries.