Forecasting road freight transport alternatives for sustainable regional development in Estonia
2016
Valdas, A., Estonian Univ. of Life Sciences, Tartu (Estonia). Inst. of Economics and Social Sciences | Ruus, R., Estonian Univ. of Life Sciences, Tartu (Estonia). Inst. of Economics and Social Sciences | Poldaru, R., Estonian Univ. of Life Sciences, Tartu (Estonia). Inst. of Economics and Social Sciences | Roots, J., Estonian Univ. of Life Sciences, Tartu (Estonia). Inst. of Economics and Social Sciences
Transportation has always been one of the main driving forces of any country’s economic development, and Estonia is no exception. Transport influences other economic sectors and the service sector, and these sectors in turn have a strong influence over the transport sector. Road transport plays an important role in the regional and sustainable development of economy. Road transport, however, is the main source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, it is important to be aware of the factors which affect both road freight and the amount of greenhouse gases emissions by road freight transport. One way to acquire information about the future is by using econometric models which, in addition to forecasts, illustrate interconnections between different factors. This study looks at the use of the econometric simultaneous equations model for forecasting the effect and the negative impact that road freight transport has on environment. Forecasts are made in three different variants, considering different growth rates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The analysis showed that the most important factors in forecasting both freight volumes and GHG emissions were GDP per capita and the number of inhabitants in Estonia.
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