Projections for the Latvian dairy and beef sector
2017
Nipers, A., Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Jelgava (Latvia) | Pilvere, I., Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Jelgava (Latvia) | Zeverte-Rivza, S., Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Jelgava (Latvia)
Milk production is the second most important agricultural sector in Latvia with 17.7 % in the distribution of agricultural final products in 2015. However, the proportion of milk production decreased by 5.3 percentage points in comparison with 2014, reaching the lowest proportion recorded. The agriculture of Latvia depends on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that continuously changes and is reformed. The European Union (EU) decision makers have traditionally used the results of a wide range of quantitative tools in n framing their choices among alternative policy instruments. To do it, it is necessary to make long-term projections for the sector. Modelling is a way of solving problems that occur in the real world. There are two important motivations for agricultural model development; 1) scientific understanding; 2) decision making or policy support. In 2016, the Latvia University of Agriculture developed the Latvian Agricultural Sector Analysis Model to simulate the development of agriculture and its key sectors for the period until 2050. The present paper reflects part of the research results – a simulation of dairy farming and a projection made for it. The following factors were taken into account when simulating the dairy sector of Latvia: commercial sales of milk, consumption of milk for food, consumption of milk for feed, milk prices, milk yields, the number of dairy cows, costs (total, as well as feed, labour and investment costs and depreciation expense), and the produced projection is useful for making policies and applying special support instruments.
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