A method for estimating the distribution of species susceptible to foot-and-mouth disease in the Kruger National Park Region
2007
Brahmbhatt, Dipa P. | Fosgate, Geoffrey T. | Gummow, Bruce | Ward, Michael P. | Vosloo, V. | Jori, Ferran | Budke, Christine M. | Srinivasan, R. | Highfield, L.
Landscape distribution of susceptible species is needed to model the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Our objective is to develop 2 individual species animal count maps - for African buffalo and domestic cattle susceptible to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the Kruger National Park Region (KNPR) of the Republic of South Africa (RSA) - using retrospective census and land use data. The KNPR includes the Kruger National Park, Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces. We applied dasymetric mapping methods to disaggregate animal population census data to a finer resolution using ancillary data. In this study, ancillary data used to define species distributions included stocking rate or carrying capacity and land suitability parameters, A geographical information system (GIS) was used to identify suitable land and vegetation locations (x,y coordinates) for each species. Covariate-specific animal counts were modelled using a Poisson distribution. The resulting animal count data was mapped and will be used to model FMD spread within the KNPR. (Résumé d'auteur)
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