Synchronous failure : The emerging causal architecture of global crisis
2015
Homer-Dixon, T. | Walker, B. | Biggs, R. | Crepin, A.S. | Folke, C. | Lambin, E.F. | Peterson, G.D. | Rockstrom, J. | Scheffer, M. | Troell, M.
Recent global crises reveal an emerging pattern of causation that could increasingly characterize the birth and progress of future global crises. A conceptual framework identifies this pattern’s deep causes, intermediate processes, and ultimate outcomes. The framework shows how multiple stresses can interact within a single social-ecological system to cause a shift in that system’s behavior, how simultaneous shifts of this kind in several largely discrete social-ecological systems can interact to cause a far larger intersystemic crisis, and how such a larger crisis can then rapidly propagate across multiple system boundaries to the global scale. Case studies of the 2008-2009 financial-energy and food-energy crises illustrate the framework. Suggestions are offered for future research to explore further the framework’s propositions. © 2015 by the author(s).
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