Tajikistan - Towards Accelerated Economic Growth : A Country Economic Memorandum
2001
World Bank
This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) looks at the potential for accelerated economic growth in Tajikistan, where as of the peace agreement of mid-1997, renewed reform efforts have brought stability, where inflation is under control, small scale privatization has been completed, and, efforts to reform agriculture have been intensified. However, the main challenge lies in reducing poverty through economic growth, helping the Government develop a set of policies to achieve this objective. The report focuses on productive economic sectors, such as industry, and agriculture, although the importance of the power sector is also briefly discussed. Finance and banking, telecommunications and transport, are outlined, basically due to their importance in the expansion of domestic economic activity, and regional/international trade. The report stipulates macroeconomic stability is still fragile, namely due to low tax revenues, and rising foreign debt, constraining fiscal sustainability, while implementation of structural reforms remains elusive, and, the share of private sector is very low. Nonetheless, Tajikistan's potential to increase its output with little additional investment, lies in its human, and physical capital, provided these are used efficiently in the medium term. Sustaining macroeconomic stability, requires credibility, and consistency in monetary policies, improved revenue mobilization, and careful management of its foreign debt. But a medium-term strategy should be in place, to sequence reforms, and enable private development.
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