Agronomic model uses to predict cultivar performance in various environments and cropping systems. A review

The diversity of growing conditions and the development of new outlets for agricultural products favour a diversity of crop management systems requiring various cultivars, with specific characteristics. Genotype performance is usually assessed through multi-environment trials comparing a variable number of genotypes grown in a wide range of soils, climatic conditions and cropping systems. Field experiments show empirical evidence for the interactions between genotype, environment and cropping system. However, such interactions are rarely taken into account to design ideotypes or for cultivar assessment, or in the definition of crop management plans adapted to cultivars. Agronomic models, built to simulate the dynamic response of crops to their environment, and thus to techniques which modify it, appear to be appropriate tools to evaluate and predict these interactions. This paper reviews the three main uses of model-based predictions of the interactions between genotype, environment and cropping system: definition of breeding targets, characterisation of the environments in cultivar experiments and support for the choice of the best cultivar to grow in a given situation. Models specifically allow understanding the influence of one or a combination of specific traits on performances and long-term ecological impacts. We show that a diversity of models is required, from physiologically based crop models to agroecology-based cropping system or landscape models, able to account well for farmers' practices. A way of taking cultivars into account in crop models is proposed, based on three main steps: the choice of the model, the identification and estimation of its cultivar parameters, and testing the model for decision support. Finally, the analysis of the limitations for wider use of crop models in variety breeding and assessment addresses some major questions for future research.