Modelling the state of agrarian enterprises’ economic security with management accounting tools

The purpose of the research is to develop a modified version of a risk-oriented approach for assessing the state of economic security of agricultural enterprises, which is based on the management accounting methodological tools and involves the formation of a system of indicators that determine the impact of risk factors on changes in the results of the enterprise’s activities. The usage of the following methods was the methodological basis of the research: analysis and synthesis to establish the interrelationship of analytical indicators applied in models for assessing the state of economic security of business entities; theoretical generalization and grouping to substantiate management accounting tools that serve as risk indicators for lowering the level of economic security; comparison in conducting an analytical assessment of actual performance indicators of agricultural enterprises with their indicators. The paper puts forward a hypothesis about the priority of management accounting in information support for safety oriented management and forms a system of indicators used as risk assessment indicators for the activities of agricultural enterprises, including the C/S ratio, the margin of safety, the breakeven point, and the operating leverage factor. The practical value of the scientific research is justified by the proposed approach for assessing the state of economic security of agricultural enterprises, which methodologically expands the toolkit of security specialists and contributes to strengthening the argumentation for funding protective measures to reduce the impact of critical risks and threats. The testing of the proposed approach to modelling the state of economic security has revealed catastrophic risks associated with the inefficient cost structure of domestic agricultural enterprises. In conditions of a decrease in the market volume for agricultural products, this leads to a sharp increase in the losses of activities and a decline in the level of economic security.