An assessment of the United States' Meat Import Act of 1979
1981
Simpson, James R.
Extract: This report analyzes the potential effect of the new United States meat import law under two radically different assumptions about buildup in United States cattle inventory. A description is given of the 1964 and 1979 meat import laws as well as U.S. and world cattle cycles. The analysis shows that the so-called "countercyclical bill" is quite insensitive to radical changes in assumption about herd growth buildup because of the rather long periods of weighted averages in the new formula, three and ten years in the case of domestic production, and five and two years in the cow beef supply portion. The countercyclical aspect of the bill will apparently function quite well if inventory, and subsequent production, follow a pattern similar to the previous cycle, but the countercyclical aspect would completely disintegrate if production were to continue to increase throughout the 1980s, albeit at a slower rate than occured in the previous cycle.
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