Balancing water and food by optimizing the planting structure in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, China

In the past several decades, the irrigation of high-intensity cropping systems has caused serious groundwater depletion in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. Optimizing the planting structure is a key method for mitigating groundwater decline. However, the optimal planting structure has not been confirmed, and the effect of planting structures has not been quantified in groundwater overdraft areas. In this study, based on a model for planting structure optimization and the elitist nondominated sorting genetic algorithm, the water saving potential was estimated, and the trade-off between water resources and agricultural production was quantified. The results showed the following: (1) The current planting structure is a highly water-consuming system. The winter wheat–summer maize double-cropping system and vegetable and fruit cropping systems are the dominant contributors to crop water consumption, accounting for 90% of the total water deficit. (2) Constrained by regional water resources, it is difficult to achieve the objectives of halting groundwater decline and food self-sufficiency simultaneously unless at least 1.0 billion m³ yr⁻¹ water from the mid-route of the South-to-North Water Transfer (SNWT) project is used for agriculture or wheat imports account for more than 25% (2.84 million ton yr⁻¹) of the regional wheat demand. (3) It is almost impossible to achieve a balance between groundwater exploitation and replenishment only by optimizing the planting structure without decreasing the agricultural output or without using external water. When the planting structure is optimized, to coordinate grain crops, cash crops and water use, at least 81–96% (4.6–5.5 billion m³ yr⁻¹) of the planned water from the SNWT project will need to be used for agriculture. (4) A viable option for restructuring planting should consider the regional self-sufficiency for wheat, a moderate surplus of vegetables/fruits to boost farmers’ income, and appropriate water transfer for groundwater sustainability. The results provide a compromise between food and water in severe groundwater overdraft areas and serve as a quantitative reference for making decisions regarding agricultural and water resource policies.