Assessment on Land-Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Countries in Central Asia from the Perspective of Self-Supplied Agricultural Products

Despite the declining hunger in Central Asia, food insecurity remains an important issue due to the dry climate. Taking Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan as examples, this study assesses their land-water resources carrying capacity in 1999, 2009, and 2018, on the premise that agricultural water and farmland are spatially matched based on the “buckets effect”, using the ecological footprint and water footprint methods. Results show the following: (1) the total farmland area in Central Asia is sufficient to achieve food self-sufficiency; the available farmland area is 2.45 times that of the farmland required for self-sufficiency in 1999, which decreased to 1.71 times in 2009, but slightly increased to 1.92 times in 2018. Specifically, Kazakhstan maintains a surplus of more than 15 × 10⁶ ha in farmland, while the other 4 countries could not achieve self-sufficiency. (2) The water resources pressure rises; the available agricultural water resource (AAWR) in Central Asia is 3.07 times that of the water demand for agricultural irrigation (WDAI), and 3.06 times that of the water demand for irrigation and environmental purification (WDIEP) in 1999, which decreased to 1.69 times of WDAI and to 1.60 times of WDIEP in 2018. Tajikistan has the highest level of water surplus, followed by Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan do not have enough water to sustain agricultural production. (3) The trend of land-water resources carrying capacity declines in Central Asia. In 1999, 2009, and 2018, the land-water resources could support the population’s food demand in this region when only considering farmland matched with WDAI. However, the population carrying capacity deficit would emerge if we considered the matching farmland with WDIEP.