Folgen des Globalen Wandels für das Grundwasser in Süddeutschland – Teil 2: Sozioökonomische Aspekte | Global change impacts on groundwater in Southern Germany—Part 2: Socioeconomic aspects
2011
Barthel, Roland | Krimly, Tatjana | Elbers, Michael | Soboll, Anja | Wackerbauer, Johann | Hennicker, Rolf | Janisch, Stephan | Reichenau, Tim G. | Dabbert, Stephan | Schmude, Jürgen | Ernst, Andreas | Mauser, Wolfram
In order to account for complex interactions between humans climate and the water cycle, the research consortium GLOWA-Danube ( www.glowa-danube.de ) has developed the simulation system DANUBIA which consists of 17 coupled models. DANUBIA was applied to investigate various impacts of global-change between 2011 and 2060 in the Upper Danube Catchment. This article describes part 2 of an article series with investigations of socio-economic aspects, while part 1 (Barthel et al. in Grundwasser 16(4), doi: 10.1007/s007-011-01794 , 2011) deals with natural-spatial aspects. The principles of socio-economic actor-modeling and interactions between socio-economic and natural science model components are described here. We present selected simulations that show impacts on groundwater from changes in agriculture, tourism, economy, domestic water users and water supply. Despite decreases in water consumption, the scenario simulations show significant decreases in groundwater quantity. On the other hand, groundwater quality will likely be influenced more severely by land use changes compared to direct climatic causes. However, overall changes will not be dramatic.
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