Forecasting flight activity of Sparganothis sulfureana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in cranberries
Cockfield, S.D. | Butkewich, S.L. | Samoil, K.S. | Mahr, D.L.
The first season flight of male Sparganothis sulfureana was monitored with pheromone traps in a Wisconsin cranberry bed, and the dates of first catch and 50% catch were recorded. The number of days from first catch to 50% catch varied less than accumulated degree-days from first to 50% catch. A Weibull function was used to model cumulative percentage capture as a function of days after first catch. Predictions by the function were evaluated with data sets from locations in Wisconsin, Massachusetts, and New jersey. The function predicted 50% catch within a mean of less than a day, and the error of the predictions had a standard deviation of 3.9 d in Wisconsin. The Wisconsin model tended to predict late in other states, thus alternative models are proposed.
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