Prediction of China's copper material flows under carbon emissions projections for the shared socioeconomic pathways
2022
Zhang, Fan | Ding, Yuze | Deng, Xiangzheng | Liu, Litao
The production and utilization of metal resources are a major source of carbon emissions and will be constrained by future carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Based on carbon emissions scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–5), we performed a life cycle assessment and material flow analysis to analyze future domestic copper production and utilization under the constraint of CO₂ budgets in China. Our findings indicates that secondary copper has potential to substitute primary copper as a major component of copper production in the future. Copper in-use stock shows a peaking trend, while the flow intensity is projected to show an overall decreasing trend, indicating the beginning of a transitional period relating to economic growth and copper utilization. Meanwhile, the increase of recovery level shows contributions to copper production. Conclusions above suggest the importance of active resource recovery and the decoupling of metal production from economic activities.
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