Hybrid-based Bayesian algorithm and hydrologic indices for flash flood vulnerability assessment in coastal regions: machine learning, risk prediction, and environmental impact

Abu El-Magd, Sherif Ahmed; Maged, Ali; Farhat, Hassan I.

Hybrid-based Bayesian algorithm and hydrologic indices for flash flood vulnerability assessment in coastal regions: machine learning, risk prediction, and environmental impact

2022

Abu El-Magd, Sherif Ahmed | Maged, Ali | Farhat, Hassan I.

Natural hazards and severe weather events are a matter of serious threat to humans, economic activities, and the environment. Flash floods are one of the extremely devastating natural events around the world. Consequently, the prediction and precise assessment of flash flood-prone areas are mandatory for any flood mitigation strategy. In this study, a new hybrid approach of machine learning (ML) algorithm and hydrologic indices opted to detect impacted and highly vulnerable areas. The obtained models were trained and validated using a total of 189 locations from Wadi Ghoweiba and surrounding area (case study). Various controlling factors including varied datasets such as stream transport index (STI), stream power index (SPI), lithological units, topographic wetness index (TWI), slope angle, stream density (SD), curvature, and slope aspect (SA) were utilized via hyper-parameter optimization setting to enhance the performance of the proposed model prediction. The hybrid machine learning (HML) model, developed by combining naïve Bayes (NïB) approach and hydrologic indices, was successfully implemented and utilized to investigate flash flood risk, sediment accumulation, and erosion predictions in the studied site. The synthesized new hybrid model demonstrated a model accuracy of 90.8% compared to 87.7% of NïB model, confirming the superior performance of the obtained model. Furthermore, the proposed model can be successfully employed in large-scale prediction applications.

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