A numerical model for estimating groundwater flux from subsurface temperature profiles

A simple numerical model is presented for estimating vertical groundwater flux from transient subsurface temperature profiles obtained from field measurements. The model developed utilizes the MacCormack scheme, which is based on the Finite Difference Method (FDM), for solving the governing partial differential equation of convection-diffusion heat transport with appropriate initial and boundary conditions within the subsurface. In order to validate the model, numerical solutions obtained for the study area located in the Nagoka plain, Japan are compared with the published measured data and results obtained by others. Results obtained show good agreement and fit the observed data with a correlation coefficient, R², of 0·88. The estimated groundwater flux is 1·85 x 10⁻⁷ m s⁻¹. Sensitivity analyses were also carried out to investigate the effect of variations in groundwater fluxes, thermal properties and the annual thermal variability due to climatic changes on the transient subsurface temperature profiles and to have a better understanding of the subsurface thermal dynamics. A substantial effect of annual climatic variability is observed on the temporal distributions of temperature depth profiles, and a better estimate of thermal parameters is required to estimate vertical groundwater flux. The largest change in subsurface temperature depth profiles due to groundwater flux over a year is within ± 4 °C. The influence of groundwater flux on subsurface temperature distributions in space and time may be more pronounced in areas where the top of the saturated layer fluctuates considerably. Variation in thermal diffusivity results in temperature change up to ± 1·5% and may cause change in groundwater flux estimate by ± 18%. The model presented has merits over analytical solutions (type curve matching techniques) in terms of suitability and applicability to real field problems, and can be a good asset to hydrological models as quantifying groundwater recharge or deducing it from other quantities, such as rainfall, evapotranspiration and runoff, is often complicated.