Producer ability to forecast harvest corn and soybean prices
2001
Kenyon, D.E.
Harvest-price expectations for corn and soybeans were obtained in January and February each year from 1991-1998. Producer expectations on average missed actual corn and soybean prices by $0.41 and $0.67 per bushel, respectively. Producer price expectations each year had a range of over $1.00 per bushel for both crops. Producer price distributions were skewed toward higher prices, and they consistently underestimated the probability of large price changes from January until harvest.
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