Predicting Dynamics of the Potential Breeding Habitat of Larus saundersi by MaxEnt Model under Changing Land-Use Conditions in Wetland Nature Reserve of Liaohe Estuary, China

Identifying waterfowl habitat suitability under changing environments, especially land-use change, is crucial to make waterfowl habitat conservation planning. We took Wetland Nature Reserve of Liaohe Estuary, the largest breeding area of Saunders’s Gulls (Larus saundersi) in the world, as our study area, generated land-use-type maps through interpretation of satellite images from four different years (1988, 2000, 2009, 2017), and predicted the potential breeding habitat of Saunders’s Gulls by MaxEnt model based on the land-use map, along with other environmental variables (NDVI, distance to roads and artificial facilities, distance to rivers and water bodies, DEM and distance to shoreline) for the four years, respectively. The models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). We analyzed the changes of the breeding habitat from 1988 to 2017 and utilized RDA to explore the relationships among the changes of suitable habitat of Larus saundersi and the dynamics of land uses. Our results showed that the most suitable habitat decreased by 1286.46 ha during 1988-2009 and increased by 363.51 ha from 2009 to 2017. The suitable habitat decreased by 582.48 ha from 1988 to 2009 and then increased to 1848.96 ha in 2017, while the unsuitable habitat increased by 2793.87 ha during 1988–2009 and then decreased by 178.83 ha from 2009 to 2017. We also found that land use, distance to the coastline, distance to artificial facilities, distance to rivers, distance to roads, and NDVI had certain degrees of impact on the Larus saundersi distribution. The contribution of land use ranged from 16.4% to 40.3%, distance to coastline from 34.7% to 48.0%, distance to artificial facilities from 5.9% to 11.1%, distance to rivers from 5.5% to 11.0%, distance to roads from 3.9% to 12.5%, and NDVI from 0.3% to 6.3%. The change in suitable habitat of Larus saundersi has a positive relationship with the change of seepweed marsh. Human-induced changes in seepweed marsh and coastline position are the main factors influencing the potential breeding habitat of Saunders’s Gulls. We suggest strict conservation of seepweed marsh and implementation of habitat management practices to better protect Saunders’ Gull’s breeding habitat.