Long-term demography of a reintroduced population of endangered falcons

We examined long-term demography of an endangered subspecies, the Northern Aplomado Falcon (Falco femoralis septentrionalis), in South Texas, USA. The population has been managed and monitored since reintroductions began in 1993. Data spanning 1993–2018 enabled us to build an integrated population model (IPM) and a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate survival for three life stages (first-year, non-breeders, and breeders) and both sexes, abundance of males, fecundity, immigration, and emigration. Male falcons survived at lower rates than females during their first year; Hurricane Harvey caused a decline in survival rates of first-years and breeders; and fecundity increased after 2011 coinciding with changes in management focused on improving nest platforms and habitat quality. Both immigration of non-breeders and emigration were likely negligible for this population suggesting a potentially isolated population. The IPM likely overestimated immigration of breeders warranting further research. Population growth rates were greatest during years having more released captive-reared young and greater probabilities of breeder survival. Importantly, an apparent decrease in breeder survival of unknown cause occurred during 2006–2009 when breeder survival declined and remained low for several years. Our ability to identify the cause for reduced survival is now greatly hampered by the extended time that has passed, limiting the usefulness of this recent awareness for informing management and further highlighting the importance of real-time monitoring for proactive decision making processes. Our study greatly improves knowledge of demographics for a reintroduced, isolated, and intensively managed population of Aplomado Falcons. Applying this IPM to new data each year will enable adaptive management of the South Texas population by providing annual evaluations of vital rates along with revised assessments of monitoring and management.