Sensitivity analysis of a fumigant movement and loss model for bulk stored grain to predict effects of environmental conditions and operational variables on fumigation efficacy
2018
Plumier, Benjamin M. | Maier, Dirk (Dirk E.)
In order to improve fumigation effectiveness and address phosphine resistance concerns, fumigant concentrations and movement in a grain storage silo need to be understood. In a previous study a mathematically accurate fumigation model was developed that is capable of predicting fumigant concentration and movement throughout a grain storage silo by taking into account fumigant loss from leakage and sorption. This model was used to investigate the impact on a phosphine fumigation with changing operational variables and environmental conditions. These included modifying the initial values from the fumigation by ± 25% and 50% for leakage rates, air recirculation rates, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Reducing leakage rate to 50% and 75% of the original rate increased fumigant concentrations by 111% and 36% compared to −21% and −34% for 125% and 150% leakage rate changes, respectively. Likewise, by the end of the simulation, average phosphine concentrations changed by 118%, 41%, −28%, and −47% for the 50%, 75%, 125%, and 150% air recirculation rates, respectively. Results underline the importance of designing well sealed silos and the importance of monitoring fumigations during high wind speed weather events.
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