Planted seedling survival in a post-wildfire landscape: From experimental planting to predictive probabilistic surfaces

Across the southwestern United States, high-severity wildfire is causing increasingly large areas of tree mortality and removing the seed sources required for the natural regeneration of these formerly conifer-dominated landscapes. Planting tree seedlings can accelerate reforestation, but in the semi-arid southwestern US, the survival of planted conifer seedlings is typically low. Our research examined how post-fire planting success is influenced by climate, topographic, biotic, and microclimate factors. We present data on a seedling planting experiment within the footprint of the 2011 Las Conchas Fire in northern New Mexico. We planted 768 tree seedlings of four species: ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), piñon (P. edulis), southwestern white pine (P. strobiformis), and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) in an area burned at high-severity and densely populated by New Mexico locust (Robinia neomexicana) and other shrub species. We established experimental plots stratified by aspect, either northerly or southerly, and cover, either planted under New Mexico locust or in the open, and collected topographical and microclimate measurements over three years. Mean survival over the 3-year period for all species in all treatments was 20%. Using microclimate variables and site-level topographical indices in a piecewise exponential model, we first determined how these factors influenced seedling survival of four conifer tree species, finding that topographical indices describing incoming solar radiation, variables related to vapor pressure deficit, i.e., seasonal maximums, and presence of New Mexico locust increased hazard for all species while variables related to shade, moisture availability, and slope reduced hazard. Following our planting experiment, an additional 1145 ponderosa pine seedlings, planted by USFS, were surveyed for survival and the topographical indices at their locations were recorded. Adding these seedlings' survival data to our experimentally planted ponderosa pine seedlings, we used boosted regression tree models to determine survival probability for ponderosa pine as a product of topographical indices, then extrapolated these findings to the wider landscape, producing a spatial projection of probabilistic seedling survival as a function of readily available topographical data, with a mean AUC value of 0.63. Both sets of analyses highlight the importance of landscape heterogeneity in shaping microclimatic environments and affecting seedling survival in a predictable manner, with areas receiving less solar radiation and more moisture promoting seedling survival. Our results demonstrate that by using fine-scale microtopography that shapes microclimatic environments, future plantings can increase conifer tree seedling survival in high-severity post-wildfire landscapes.