Changes in permafrost extent and active layer thickness in the Northern Hemisphere from 1969 to 2018
2022
Li, Guanji | Zhang, Mingyi | Pei, Wansheng | Melnikov, Andrey | Khristoforov, Ivan | Li, Renwei | Yu, Fan
Understanding the evolutions of the permafrost extent and active layer thickness (ALT) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are critical for global carbon flux simulation, climate change prediction, and engineering risk assessment. The temporal change characteristics of the permafrost extent and ALT for the NH have not been studied. We used the Kudryavtsev method, integrating a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution of air temperature, soil texture, snow depth, vegetation type, soil volume moisture content, and organic content to simulate the changes of permafrost extent and ALT in the NH from 1969 to 2018. The results indicated that permafrost extent decreased from 23.25 × 10⁶ km² (average from 1969 to 1973) to 21.64 × 10⁶ km² (average from 2014 to 2018), with a linear rate of −0.023 × 10⁶ km²/a. Siberia had the highest degradation rate of 0.014 × 10⁶ km²/a, followed by Alaska, Mongolian Plateau, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Northern Canada, and Greenland, with linear rates of −0.012 × 10⁶, −0.005 × 10⁶, −0.004 × 10⁶, −0.0014 × 10⁶, and − 0.0004× 10⁶ km²/a, respectively. The average ALT in the NH increased at a linear rate of 0.0086 m/a. Alaska and Mongolian Plateau had the highest thickening rate of 0.024 m/a, followed by Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Siberia, Northern Canada, and Greenland, which had linear rates of 0.009, 0.008, 0.0072, and 0.003 m/a, respectively. The uncertainty of the results could be attributed to the inaccurate forcing data and limitations of the Kudryavtsev model.
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