Evaluation of the different Alternaria prediction models on a potato crop in A Limia (NW of Spain)

The main crop of the A Limia region is the potato, with an average production of 5 million kilos per year, under the protected geographic indication (IGP) Pataca de Galicia (Galician potato) label recognized by the European Community. Alternaria represents an important part of the pathogenic fungus spectra on this crop, representing an average of 1.9-3.1% of the spores collected. It represents the fourth and third most common type, respectively, in the years of study, after the Cladosporium type (which represented 80% and 64% respectively in each year of study), the Basidia type (5.5% and 1.4%), Botrytis (3.5% and 1.3%), and Fusarium (2.7% and 25.2%). A Lanzoni VPPS 2000 Hirst volumetric sampler was placed in Damil, in the region of A Limia in order to determine the airborne concentration of Alternaria conidium over a potato crop and finally to try to establish the most suitable prediction models for Alternaria attacks and how they might be controlled. We applied different models based on temperature, such as the model of propitious days (P-Days), the model of accumulation of disfavourable days (DD), and the relative humidity model of interrupted wet periods (IWP). The most efficient model was found to be the interrupted wet periods (IWP) method as it could predict several days of attack during the development of the crop. It is efficient in A Limia even when the features described in this model are fulfilled during five consecutive days. In the first year of study the efficiency of this method was lower as alternariosis did not proliferate to the same degree due to the adverse meteorological conditions registered for the development of the fungus. This study is the first step towards prediction of infection by Alternaria in potato crops. We need more years of study in order to adjust these models to the conditions of the sampling area, and thus be able to confirm the necessary values and their suitability with the aim of developing possible alternatives to reduce the negative consequences of this pathogen.