Evaluating the impacts of wood production and trade on bird extinction risks

Biodiversity loss can be accelerated by human consumption in regions that are far removed from habitat degradation because of economic globalization, but no study has directly quantified the effects of global trade on extinction risks at a global scale with consideration for species differences. We propose a novel biodiversity footprint index based on bird extinction risks to evaluate the effects of global wood production and trade on biodiversity. Using 536 endangered bird species threatened by wood harvesting and logging, we calculated the “quasi-extinction” probabilities, that is, the probabilities that population sizes become lower than an extinction threshold after habitat loss based on initial population sizes and forest habitat loss rates. We then used bilateral wood trade data to link the biodiversity impacts in wood exporters to wood importers. We found that if recent trends in forest cover loss continue until 2100, bird species in Brazil would be the most rapidly and heavily affected by wood production and trade, followed by those in Indonesia; these two countries alone would account for about half of all global bird extinctions. Large-scale wood importers (i.e., China, Japan, and the United States) significantly elevate overseas extinction risks and, simultaneously, reduce domestic impacts, indicating a heavy responsibility of these countries for global biodiversity loss. We also conducted a scenario analysis, which showed that the total projected number of extinct species would not decrease if each country produced the amount of wood materials necessary to meet current consumption levels. This is because bird extinction risks in tropical wood importers, such as Mexico and the Philippines, as well as Japan and China will increase if these countries increase domestic wood production. Our biodiversity footprint index is useful to identify countries whose bird species are highly affected by wood production and trade, and to quantify the role of wood trade in bird species extinctions. Additional scenario analyses are needed to establish effective patterns of wood production and consumption for bird biodiversity conservation.