China's economic and demographic growth, forest products consumption, and wood requirements: 1949 to 2010
1997
Zhang, Y. | Buongiorno, J. | Zhang, D.
The reforms begun in 1978 in China have had radical positive effects on the country's economic growth. After reviewing past trends in forest product markets and resources, this paper presents forecasts of the impacts of this economic acceleration, in a country of 1.2 billion people, on the needs for forest products up to the year 2010. Future requirements were predicted with equations linking the consumption of forest products to income and population, and the roundwood requirements to products consumption. By the year 2010, the needs of China in wood equivalent will correspond roughly to the total current United States production, but consumption per capita will still be much lower. The currently planned timber supply will provide for about 3/4 of the total wood requirements by the year 2010. The rest must be imported, or the domestic supply must be increased by a mix of state planning and market incentives.
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