Assessment of the impact of forestry and leisure activities on wild boar spatial disturbance with a potential application to ASF risk of spread

In Europe, African swine fever virus (ASFV) is one of the most threatening infectious transboundary diseases of domestic pigs and wild boar. In September 2018, ASF was detected in wild boar in the South of Belgium. France, as a bordering country, is extremely concerned about the ASF situation in Belgium, and an active preparedness is ongoing in the country. One of the questions raised by this situation relates to disturbing activities that may affect wild boar movements and their possible impact on the spread of ASFV. Despite evidence of disturbance related to hunting practices, there is a paucity of information on the impact of forestry and human leisure activities. To assess this impact on wild boar movements, a systematic review was first conducted but very few useful data were obtained. For this reason, an expert elicitation was carried out by the French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health & Safety in order to deal with this knowledge gap. A total of 30 experts originating from France and adjacent neighbouring countries (Spain, Belgium and Switzerland) were elicited about the relative importance of six factors of spatial disturbance of wild boar (noise, smell, invasion of space, modification of the environment, duration and frequency of the activity). Then, for each factor of disturbance, they were asked about the impact of 16 different commercial forestry and human leisure activities. A global weighted score was estimated in order to capture the variability of a wide range of territorial conditions and the uncertainty of expert elicitation. This estimate permitted ranking all 16 activities and aggregating them in three groups according to their potential for disturbance of wild boar, using a regression tree analysis. The results of this expert elicitation provide a methodological approach that may be useful for French and other European decision makers and stakeholders involved in the crisis management of ASF.