Soil Carbon Response to Projected Climate Change in the US Western Corn Belt

The western US Corn Belt is projected to experience major changes in growing conditions due to climate change over the next 50 to 100 yr. Projected changes include increases in growing season length, number of high temperature stress days and warm nights, and precipitation, with more heavy rainfall events. The impact these changes will have on soil organic carbon (SOC) needs to be estimated and adaptive changes in management developed to sustain soil health and system services. The process‐based model CQESTR was used to model changes in SOC stocks (0–30 cm) of continuous corn (Zea mays L.) and a corn–soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation under disk, chisel, ridge, and no‐tillage using projected growing season conditions for the next 50 yr. Input for the model was based on management and harvest records from a long‐term tillage study (1986–2015) in eastern Nebraska, and model output was validated using measured changes in SOC from 1999 to 2011 in the study. The validated model was used to estimate changes in SOC over 17 yr under climatic conditions projected for 2065 under two scenarios: (i) crop yields increasing at the observed rate from 1971 to 2016 or (ii) crop yields reduced due to negative effects of increasing temperature. CQESTR estimates of SOC agreed well with measured SOC (R² = 0.70, P < 0.0001). Validated model simulated changes in SOC under projected climate change differed among the three soil depths (0–7.5, 7.5–15, and 15–30 cm). Summed over the 0‐ to 30‐cm depth, there were significant three‐way interactions of year × rotation × yield (p = 0.014) and year × tillage × yield (p < 0.001). As yield increased, SOC increased under no‐tillage continuous corn but was unchanged under no‐tillage corn–soybean and ridge tillage regardless of cropping system. Under chisel and disk tillage, SOC declined regardless of cropping system. With declining yields SOC decreased regardless of tillage or cropping system. These results highlight the interaction between genetics and management in maintaining yield trends and soil C. CORE IDEAS: Improvements in management and genetics will be needed to maintain or increase C sequestration. Conservation tillage practices that minimize soil disturbance sustain soil organic C. Decreasing crop yields will require additional input to sustain current soil organic C levels.