Number of export almond lots rejected in the EU due to USA sampling plans and aflatoxin contamination levels among lots tested

In March 2010, the European Union (EU) modified their aflatoxin limits and sampling plans for almonds, pistachios, and hazelnuts to closely resemble that developed by Codex in 2008. To assist the USA almond industry evaluate how to modify their aflatoxin sampling plan to minimise USA lots rejected by the EU at import, studies were conducted to: (a) develop a model to predict the number of USA almond lots rejected at origin and at destination by various Codex style aflatoxin-sampling plans used by the USA where accept/reject limits vary from EU limits of 8 ng/g aflatoxin B₁ / 10 ng/g total aflatoxins (AFT) to 8, 6, 4, 2, and 0.5 ng/g AFT; (b) determine the effect of the level of aflatoxin contamination among lots tested in the USA on the number of lots accepted and rejected at origin and at destination; and (c) develop a method based upon lots rejected in the USA to predict the lots rejected several months later in the EU. For a given USA crop contamination level, as the accept/reject limits of the USA sampling plan decreases from 8 to 0.5 ng/g AFT, the number of lots rejected in the USA increases, the average aflatoxin concentration among all lots accepted for export decreases, the number of lots rejected in the EU decreases, and the average aflatoxin concentration among lots accepted in the EU decreases. For a given USA aflatoxin sampling plan used at origin, an increase in the USA crop aflatoxin contamination level increases the number of lots rejected at origin, increases the average aflatoxin concentration in USA lots accepted for export, increases the number of lots rejected in the EU, and increases the average aflatoxin concentration among lots accepted in the EU. Graphical techniques were developed to use the percentage of lots rejected in the USA to predict the percentage of USA lots rejected by the EU.