Delineating the ecological conservation redline based on the persistence of key species: Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) inhabiting the Qinling Mountains

To effectively resolve conflicts between natural resources and environmental protection and guarantee ecological safety, the Chinese government has proposed a national strategy to delineate ecological conservation redlines (ECRs). The ECR is defined as the least amount of area needed to guarantee the national and regional ecological safety of ecosystem services and implementation of strict mandatory protection policy. Because this was piloted by government and theoretical study has lagged, there remains no fully accepted ECR delineation framework. Being neglected in the current delineating guidelines for ECR, we focused on ECR delineation of the Qinling Mountains based on the sustainable survival needs of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) to explore the ECR delineation approach with species persistence. We define the concepts of basic, current and future ECR, and set the principals and procedures for ECR delineation based on the historical and current giant panda population range, current and future habitat modeling with data from national giant panda surveys, and the impacts of climate change. Our results indicate that the basic ECR is 369,531ha; the current ECR is 422,149ha with 33,498ha of suitable and sub-suitable habitat from the basic ECR covering 67% of current giant panda reserves. The future ECR in 2050 is 516,838ha with 109,990ha future suitable and sub-suitable habitat based on current ECR and covers 84% of current reserves. As the foundation of an ecosystem, species deserve to be an important basis when delineating ECR. Concentrating on the needs of long-term species survival, rich and powerful study of target species’ biology makes ECR delineation feasible and operational, while strengthening theoretical and scientific support at better temporal and spatial scales. The approach and index system employed here is a scientific framework for ECR delineation, especially given the temporal scale of population and habitat, and the main driving factors for future habitat dynamics. This method avoids the complicated process of ecological assessment. We hope our methods and reasoning can be incorporated into national guidelines and applied to ECR delineation across China.