Remote estimates of soil organic carbon using multi-temporal synthetic images and the probability hybrid model

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a key role in soil function, ecosystem services, and the global carbon cycle. Digital SOC mapping is essential for agricultural production management. Digital SOC mapping based on multi-source remote sensing data has been integrated well into prediction models and methodological approaches on different mapping scales. However, the mixed use of synthetic images and the application of the hybrid model considering the soil classification probability are rare. Here, we propose a probability hybrid model to estimate and map SOC content and distribution. Multi-temporal synthetic images were used to build the probability hybrid model. One hundred forty topsoil samples were collected in Suihua, a city in a typical black soil region in China. Cloud-free Sentinel-2 images were acquired from the bare soil periods between 2018 and 2021. Minimum, maximum, mean, and median synthetic images were calculated using single images from the same period. The random forest and support vector machine models were used for discriminating soil class and calculating soil classification probability, and then random forest regression model was applied to SOC mapping. Soil class mapping and classification probability were performed for Phaeozems, Chernozems, and Cambisols of the World Reference Base for Soil Resources (WRB) based on soil texture, climatic factors, and the normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI). Based on soil class mapping results, global models using single temporal images and multi-temporal images, the hybrid model using multi-temporal images for the three soil classes as well as a probability hybrid model using multi-temporal images were built and compared their SOC predictions. Our study showed that (1) Phaeozems, Chernozems and Cambisols could be classified accurately, and the overall validation accuracy of random forest model was 91.67%. (2) The correlations of SOC with bands and band indices improved using multi-temporal images, and the use of mixed synthetic images was better than the use of only one synthetic image. (3) The hybrid model performed far better than the global models, and the probability hybrid model led to the highest prediction accuracy, a validation R² of 0.77 and an RMSE of 2.30 g kg⁻¹. (4) The probability hybrid model was more accurate than the original hybrid model for digital SOC mapping, and the SOC distribution in boundary regions was smoother and more continuous. Our results suggest that the probability hybrid model has a large potential for SOC prediction and mapping.