Overall efficacies of combined measures for controlling grape bunch rot can be estimated by multiplicative consideration of individual effects
Molitor, Daniel | Hoffmann, Lucien | Beyer, Marco
Aims: The present analyses aimed at evaluating the performance of two models for estimating the overall effect of combining two or more measures (leaf removal, cluster division, late shoot topping, botryticide application, bioregulator application) for controlling grape bunch rot based on the efficacy of the individual measures. Methods and results: Field trials with the white Vitis vinifera cultivars Pinot gris and Riesling on the efficacy of three bunch rot control measures applied either alone or in combination were analyzed. Bunch rot disease severities prior to harvest were assessed and efficacies were calculated for each treatment. Observed efficacies of single measures were used to estimate the overall efficacies of all possible measure combinations. Calculated efficacies matched observed efficacies more accurately when assuming multiplicative interaction among the individual measures (R2 = 0.8574, p < 0.0001; average absolute deviation: 7.9%) than in case of assuming additive effects (R2 = 0.8280; average absolute deviation: 14.7%). Conclusions: The multiplicative approach assumes that each additional measure is affecting (in case of efficient measures: reducing) the disease severity level as the result of the additional treatments rather than compared to the disease severity level in the untreated control. Significance and impact of the study: The high goodness of fit as well as the observed low deviations between the estimated and the observed efficacies suggest that the multiplicative approach is appropriate for estimating the efficacy of combined viticultural measures in a complex practical bunch rot control strategy assembled of different modules.
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