Anticipating the consequences of climate change for Canada’s boreal forest ecosystems1

Canadian boreal woodlands and forests cover approximately 3.09 × 10⁶ km², located within a larger boreal zone characterized by cool summers and long cold winters. Warming since the 1850s, increases in annual mean temperature of at least 2 °C between 2000 and 2050 are highly probable. Annual mean temperatures across the Canadian boreal zone could be 4–5 °C warmer than today’s by 2100. All aspects of boreal forest ecosystem function are likely to be affected. Further, several potential “tipping elements” — where exposure to increasing changes in climate may trigger distinct shifts in ecosystem state — can be identified across the Canadian boreal zone. Approximately 40% of the forested area is underlain by permafrost, some of which is already degrading irreversibly, triggering a process of forest decline and re-establishment lasting several decades, while also releasing significant quantities of greenhouse gases that will amplify the future global warming trend. Warmer temperatures coupled with significant changes in the distribution and timing of annual precipitation are likely to cause serious tree-killing droughts in the west; east of the Great Lakes, however, where precipitation is generally nonlimiting, warming coupled with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide may stimulate higher forest productivity. Large wildfires, which can cause serious economic losses, are expected to become more frequent, but increases in mean annual area burned will be relatively gradual. The most immediate threats could come from endemic forest insect pests that have the potential for population outbreaks in response to relatively small temperature increases. Quantifying the multiple effects of climate change will be challenging, particularly because there are great uncertainties attached to possible interactions among them, as well as with other land-use pressures. Considerable ingenuity will be needed from forest managers and scientists to address the formidable challenges posed by climate change to boreal ecosystems and develop effective strategies to adapt sustainable forest management practices to the impending changes.