Climate, CO2, and Anthropogenic Drivers of Accelerated Vegetation Greening in the Haihe River Basin
Yang, Wenjing | Zhao, Yong | Wang, Qingming | Guan, Buliao
Vegetation regulates the exchange of terrestrial carbon and water fluxes and connects the biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Over the last four decades, vegetation greening has been observed worldwide using satellite technology. China has also experienced a notably widespread greening trend. However, the responsiveness of vegetation dynamics to elevated CO₂ concentration, climate change, and human activities remains unclear. In this study, we attempted to explore the impact of natural (precipitation, air temperature), biogeochemical (CO₂), and anthropogenic drivers (nighttime light, afforestation area) on changes in vegetation greenness in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) during 2002–2018 at the county-level. We further determined the major factors affecting the variation in satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) for each county. The results indicated that over 85% of the counties had a significantly increased NDVI trend, and the average linear trend of annual NDVI across the study region was 0.0037 per year. The largest contributor to the NDVI trend was CO₂ (mean contribution 45%), followed by human activities (mean contribution of 27%). Additionally, afforestation was a pronounced driving force for NDVI changes in mountainous areas, resulting from ecosystem restoration efforts. Our findings emphasize the crucial role of CO₂ fertilization in vegetation cover change, while considering CO₂ concentration, climate change, and human activities, and shed light on the significant influences of afforestation programs on water resources, especially in mountainous areas.
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