Identification and apportionment of shallow groundwater nitrate pollution in Weining Plain, northwest China, using hydrochemical indices, nitrate stable isotopes, and the new Bayesian stable isotope mixing model (MixSIAR)

Groundwater nitrate (NO₃⁻) pollution is a worldwide environmental problem. Therefore, identification and partitioning of its potential sources are of great importance for effective control of groundwater quality. The current study was carried out to identify the potential sources of groundwater NO₃⁻ pollution and determine their apportionment in different land use/land cover (LULC) types in a traditional agricultural area, Weining Plain, in Northwest China. Multiple hydrochemical indices, as well as dual NO₃⁻ isotopes (δ¹⁵N–NO₃ and δ¹⁸O–NO₃), were used to investigate the groundwater quality and its influencing factors. LULC patterns of the study area were first determined by interpreting remote sensing image data collected from the Sentinel-2 satellite, then the Bayesian stable isotope mixing model (MixSIAR) was used to estimate proportional contributions of the potential sources to groundwater NO₃⁻ concentrations. Groundwater quality in the study area was influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors, with anthropological impact being more important. The results of LULC revealed that the irrigated land is the dominant LULC type in the plain, covering an area of 576.6 km² (57.18% of the total surface study area of the plain). On the other hand, the results of the NO₃⁻ isotopes suggested that manure and sewage (M&S), as well as soil nitrogen (SN), were the major contributors to groundwater NO₃⁻. Moreover, the results obtained from the MixSIAR model showed that the mean proportional contributions of M&S to groundwater NO₃⁻ were 55.5, 43.4, 21.4, and 78.7% in the forest, irrigated, paddy, and urban lands, respectively. While SN showed mean proportional contributions of 29.9, 43.4, 61.5, and 12.7% in the forest, irrigated, paddy, and urban lands, respectively. The current study provides valuable information for local authorities to support sustainable groundwater management in the study region.