A nonparametric approach to filling gaps in satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth for estimating ambient PM2.5 levels

Zhang, Ruixin; Di, Baofeng; Luo, Yuzhou; Deng, Xunfei; Grieneisen, Michael L.; Wang, Zhigao; Yao, Gang; Zhan, Yu

A nonparametric approach to filling gaps in satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth for estimating ambient PM2.5 levels

2018

Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) is commonly used to estimate ambient levels of fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅), though it is important to mitigate the estimation bias of PM₂.₅ due to gaps in satellite-retrieved AOD. A nonparametric approach with two random-forest submodels is proposed to estimate PM₂.₅ levels by filling gaps in satellite-retrieved AOD. This novel approach was employed to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of daily PM₂.₅ levels during 2013–2015 in the Sichuan Basin of Southwest China, where the coverage rate of composite AOD retrieved by the Terra and Aqua satellites was only 11.7%. Based on the retrieved AOD and various covariates (including meteorological conditions and land use types), the first random-forest submodel (named AOD-submodel) was trained to fill the gaps in the AOD dataset, giving a cross-validation R² of 0.95. Subsequently, the second random-forest submodel (named PM₂.₅-submodel) was trained to estimate the PM₂.₅ levels for unmonitored areas/days based on the gap-filled AOD, ground-monitored PM₂.₅ levels, and the covariates, and achieved a cross-validation R² of 0.86. By comparing the complete and incomplete (i.e., without the days when AOD data were missing) estimates, we found that the monthly PM₂.₅ levels could be overestimated by 34.6% if the PM₂.₅ values coincident with AOD gaps were not considered. The newly developed approach is valuable for deriving the complete spatiotemporal distribution of daily PM₂.₅ from incomplete remote-sensing data, which is essential for air quality management and human exposure assessment.

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