Opposite impact of emission reduction during the COVID-19 lockdown period on the surface concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 in Wuhan, China

Yin, Hao; Liu, Cheng; Hu, Qihou; Liu, Ting; Wang, Shuntian; Gao, Meng; Xu, Shiqi; Zhang, Chengxin; Su, Wenjing

Opposite impact of emission reduction during the COVID-19 lockdown period on the surface concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 in Wuhan, China

2021

To prevent the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese megacity Wuhan has taken emergent lockdown measures starting on January 23, 2020. This provided a natural experiment to investigate the response of air quality to such emission reductions. Here, we decoupled the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on main air pollutants using generalized additive models (GAMs), driven by data from the China National Environmental Monitoring Center (CNEMC) network. During the lockdown period (Jan. 23 – Apr. 8, 2020), PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂, and CO concentrations decreased significantly by 45 %, 49 %, 56 %, 39 %, and 18 % compared with the corresponding period in 2015–2019, with contributions by S(meteos) of 15 %, 17 %, 13 %, 10 %, and 6 %. This indicates an emission reduction of NOₓ at least 43 %. However, O₃ increased by 43 % with a contribution by S(meteos) of 6 %. In spite of the reduced volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by 30 % during the strict lockdown period (Jan. 23 – Feb. 14, 2020), which likely reduced the production of O₃, O₃ concentrations increased due to a weakening of the titration effect of NO. Our results suggest that conventional emission reduction (NOₓ reduction only) measures may not be sufficient to reduce (or even lead to an increase of) surface O₃ concentrations, even if reaching the limit, and VOC-specific measures should also be taken.

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