An ANN experiment on the Indian economy: can the change in pollution generate an increase or decrease in GDP acceleration?

Mele, Marco; Nieddu, Luciano; Abbafati, Cristiana; Quarto, Angelo

An ANN experiment on the Indian economy: can the change in pollution generate an increase or decrease in GDP acceleration?

2021

Mele, Marco | Nieddu, Luciano | Abbafati, Cristiana | Quarto, Angelo

In recent years, the concept of sustainable development has enriched numerous scientific researches. Therefore, the combination of economic growth and the environment has been the subject of numerous econometric and statistical models. They demonstrated that there is a two-way relationship between economic growth and pollution. So, we use data from the World Bank database (1971–2014) to assess the possibility that a change (positive or negative) in pollution in India generates a gross domestic product acceleration. Through a Machine Learning approach via artificial neural network analysis, empirical findings show that a deep neural network can predict the outcome under study. The novelty of this paper is to have determined the results through a model based on a comparison with a highly developed country (Japan). The results obtained show that in a country like India, 76% of the time, a change in pollution evolves into a change in the acceleration of the economic growth.

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