Investigating the temporal and spatial distribution of foot‐and‐mouth disease virus serotype C in the Region of South America, 1968‐2016
2019
Sanchez‐Vazquez, Manuel José | Buzanovsky, Lia Puppim | dos Santos, Alexandre Guerra | Allende, Rossana Maria | Cosivi, Ottorino | Rivera, Alejandro Mauricio
This study investigates the historical temporal trend and geographical distribution of the foot‐and‐mouth disease virus (FMDv) serotype C in South America; discussing the findings within the context of the actions and strategies carried out for the elimination of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD). This is the first time that such a comprehensive historical compilation has been carried out in the Region; hence, the study is intended as a reference and source of evidence about the presence/absence of FMDv serotype C in South America. Data on the occurrence of FMD were sourced from the Weekly Epidemiological Reports submitted by the countries to Pan American Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Center (PANAFTOSA‐PAHO/WHO) since 1972, and complemented with other sources of information from the 1968–1971 period. The temporal distribution was examined with local weighted regression (LOESS) to identify two temporal trends, that is, “smoothed” and “over‐adjusted”, utilising the time‐series with the total number of cases per year, at Regional level. Thereafter the outbreaks were aggregated by decades and mapped by the first subnational administrative level. As a result, two major peaks of occurrence were identified, one in the 70s, with up to 1,193 outbreaks, and another in the 80s, with 380. Overall, the investigations show a clear regressive trend in the occurrence of serotype C, with a reduction in the number of outbreaks over‐time, and with the subsequent reduction of affected locations. This study illustrates the contrast between the very limited presence over the last 20 years – with only one event in 2004 – and the epidemic situation in the 1970s and 1980s, and suggests that serotype C of FMDv is no longer present in the Region.
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