Potential impact of climate change on throughfall in afforestation areas located in arid and semi-arid environments
2021
Attarod, Pedram | Tang, Qiuhong | Pypker, Thomas Grant | Liu, Xingcai | Bayramzadeh, Vilma
We assessed how climate change may impact the canopy hydrology of individual Pinus eldarica, Pinus brutia, and Cupressus arizonica trees planted in arid and semi-arid climates in Iran. Precipitation that reaches the forest floor as throughfall (TF) represents a significant portion of individual precipitation events (Pg). We used a nondimensional relative sensitivity coefficient to examine the sensitivity of TF to changes in Pg. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) HadGEM2-ES product was used under two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5) to project yearly precipitation and Pg for the measurement sites from 2020–50. There was a strong linear relationship between TF and Pg at all sites [TF = 0.6 (Pg) − 0.2; R ² = 0.9]. The arid P. eldarica trees showed the highest sensitivity coefficient (5.3) compared with semi-arid C. arizonica trees (1.6). The sensitivity coefficient approximately doubled for individual P. eldarica and C. arizonica trees in the arid climate relative to P. brutia and C. arizonica trees in the semi-arid climate. This suggests that TF under trees in the arid climate were more affected by changing Pg than in the semi-arid climate. Pinus eldarica trees planted in the dry climate exhibited the largest sensitivity coefficient differences (3.4) between small and large Pg. Changes in precipitation and increased smaller storm frequency are expected for arid and semi-arid regions. To buffer expected shifts in storm size due to climate change, it may be suitable to incorporate TF sensitivity when selecting trees for landscaping and urban greening.
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