Prediction of testcross means and variances among F3 progenies of F1 crosses from testcross means and genetic distances of their parents in maize

Prediction of the means and genetic variances in segregating generations could help to assess the breeding potential of base populations. In this study, we investigated whether the testcross (TC) means and variances of F₃ progenies from F₁ crosses in European maize can be predicted from the TC means of their parents and F₁ crosses and four measures of parental genetic divergence: genetic distance (GD) determined by 194 RFLP or 691 AFLPᵀᴹ ¹ markers, mid-parent heterosis (MPH), and absolute difference between the TC means of parents (∣P₁−P₂∣). The experimental materials comprised six sets of crosses; each set consisted of four elite inbreds from the flint or dent germplasm and the six possible F₁ crosses between them, which were evaluated for mid-parent heterosis. Testcross progenies of these materials and 20 random F₃ plants per F₁ cross were produced with a single-cross tester from the opposite heterotic group and evaluated in two environments. The characters studied were plant height, dry matter content and grain yield. The genetic distance between parent lines ranged between 0.17 and 0.70 for RFLPs and between 0.14 and 0.57 for AFLPs in the six sets. Testcross-means of parents, F₁ crosses, and F₃ populations averaged across the six crosses in a particular set generally agreed well for all three traits. Bartlett’s test revealed heterogeneous TC variances among the six crosses in all sets for plant height, in four sets for grain yield and in five sets for dry matter content. Correlations among the TC means of the parents, F₁ crosses, and F₃ populations were highly significant and positive for all traits. Estimates of the TC variance among F₃ progenies for the 36 crosses showed only low correlations with the four measures of parental genetic divergence for all traits. The results demonstrated that for our material, the TC means of the parents or the parental F₁ cross can be used as predictors for the TC means of F₃ populations. However, the prediction of the TC variance remains an unsolved problem.