Analyse der Ergebnisse der Viehzählung vom 3. Nov. 2023 und Prognose der Rind- und Schweinefleischerzeugung in Deutschland 2024

At a global level, the meat market is characterized by subdued import demand and sufficient export volumes in the main producing regions. The situation in the beef market is somewhat different. The USA and China in particular have a high demand for imports. The world market is mainly supplied by South American countries and Australia. The situation within the EU can be explained by a reluctance to buy and the search for cheap meat products due to high inflation. Pork production in particular has been significantly reduced in almost all EU countries. The decline in beef production also continues. Weak demand and high prices (partly driven by export markets but also by high production costs) are the main reasons for this description. The reluctance to buy and consume meat, especially pork and beef, also continues in Germany. Due to higher production costs, producer and consumer prices have also risen, dampening demand. The decline in cattle numbers in 2023 census was slightly less than in previous years. There is still a large difference in average farm size between the western and eastern Länder. Despite high producer prices for all categories of cattle, fewer animals continue to be delivered to slaughterhouses. Pig herds have been massively reduced over the last two years. In the last two years alone, almost 20% of holdings have given up pig production. The number of pigs slaughtered has fallen accordingly. This massive change in pork production is mainly due to the continuing decline in consumption in Germany and export restrictions due to the ongoing ASF epidemic. The results of the livestock census and foreign trade data suggest that demand will stagnate or decline only slightly in the near future. This would be a departure from the previous trend of a sharp decline in demand.