Explaining the Spatial-Physical Development Scenarios of Rural Settlements in Mashhad Urban Complex

The sustainable physical-spatial development of Mashhad urban complex is the prerequisite of attaining sustainable regional (provincial) and national development. This necessitates paying attention to the development of scenarios that set the ground for the development of Mashhad.  In the study at hand, it was tried through the participation of the provincial managers and academic experts to identify first the key drivers of physical-spatial changes in the rural settlements of Mashhad urban complex and then the scenarios effective on the physical-spatial development of these settlements. This study was applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The data was collected through library research, document analysis, and survey (interview) methods. Examining scientific resources, 69 factors effective on the physical-spatial changes were identified, which were grouped into five dimensions. Then, 29 participants in two groups, namely the managers of the related organizations and academic experts, were interviewed. Data analysis was done based on future research techniques, including Schwartz model, structural analysis, and interaction analysis, using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software packages. The results showed that 512 scenarios have weak compatibility, and only one scenario has strong, sustainable compatibility (zero incompatibility) (2.8 percent of possible scenarios are credible). The first scenario, which is in positive direction, has the overall interaction effect score of 771 and compatibility value of 7, while the second scenario that expresses the fairly favorable conditions for the future of rural settlements has the overall interaction effect score of 736 and compatibility value of -2. The third scenario, which has the compatibility value of -3 and the overall interaction effect score of 695, can be one of the possible scenarios for the future physical-spatial changes in rural areas, too.