Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals
Leclerc, Camille | Courchamp, Franck | Bellard, Céline | Ecologie, Société et Evolution (ex-Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution) (ESE) ; AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER) ; Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | AXA Research Fund Chair for Invasion Biology, and the Biodiversa Eranet AlienScenarios. More generally, this work has been funded by our salaries as French agents and by the CNRS funding for young researcher. | ANR-14-CE02-0021,InvaCosts,Insectes envahissants et leurs couts pour la biodiversité, l'économie et la santé humaine(2014)
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Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Английский. Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.
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