Climate change impact on karstic aquifer hydrodynamics in southern Europe semi-arid region using the KAGIS model
Valdes-Abellan, Javier | Pardo Picazo, Miguel Ángel | Jódar-Abellán, Antonio | Pla, Concepción | Fernández Mejuto, Miguel | Fernández Mejuto, Miguel | Pardo Picazo, Miguel Ángel | Pla, Concepción | Valdes-Abellan, Javier | Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Ingeniería Civil | Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente | Universidad de Alicante. Instituto Universitario del Agua y las Ciencias Ambientales | Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental (IngHA) | Tecnología de Materiales y Territorio (TECMATER) | Petrología Aplicada | Geología Aplicada e Hidrogeología
Nowadays, there are many urban settlements in arid and semiarid areas supplied by groundwater from adjacent small aquifers. Climate projections with expected decreases in averages precipitation values jointly with increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall events does not show a clear pattern to how water resources in karstic aquifers are going to evolve. This paper, focused in the province of Alicante (Southeast of Spain), assesses the behaviour of a small karstic aquifer, the Mela aquifer, whose resources supply urban water consumption for close municipalities. We assess the hydrogeological response of the aquifer, through the KAGIS black-box GIS-based model, for the present climate conditions and for the long period analysing the four scenarios provided by the International Panel of Climate Change. Main results prove that, if we do not diminish the greenhouse gas emissions, the climate change impact on the hydrological response of the study aquifer shows a decrease in the flow rate from its unique spring and will be non-existent during the summer months. So, it will be necessary to design supply strategies for these municipalities and to carry out them, meeting budget restrictions and avoiding potential water shortages.
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]This work was supported by the research project “GESAEN” and “UrbanDesc” through the 2016 and 2017 calls of the Vicerrectorado de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación of the University of Alicante (GRE-16-08, GRE17-12). Antonio Jodar-Abellan acknowledges the financial support received fromthe Spanish FPU scholarship for the training of university teachers.
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