Modeling the Number of People Infected With SARS-COV-2 From Wastewater Viral Load in Northwest Spain

Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade da Coruña/CISUG

[Abstract] The quantification of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in wastewater has emerged as a useful tool to monitor COVID–19 outbreaks in the community. This approach was implemented in the metropolitan area of A Coruña (NW Spain), where wastewater from a treatment plant was analyzed to track the epidemic dynamics in a population of 369,098 inhabitants. Viral load detected in the wastewater and the epidemiological data from A Coruña health system served as main sources for statistical models developing. Regression models described here allowed us to estimate the number of infected people (R2 = 0.9), including symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. These models have helped to understand the real magnitude of the epidemic in a population at any given time and have been used as an effective early warning tool for predicting outbreaks in A Coruña municipality. The methodology of the present work could be used to develop a similar wastewater-based epidemiological model to track the evolution of the COVID–19 epidemic anywhere in the world where centralized water-based sanitation systems exist.

This work was supported by EDAR Bens S.A., A Coruña, Spain [grant references INV04020, INV12120 and INV05921 to MP], the National Plan for Scientific Research, Development and Technological Innovation 2013-2016 funded by the ISCIII, Spain - General Subdirection of Assessment and Promotion of the Research-European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) “A way of making Europe” [grant numbers PI15/00860 to GB, PI17/01482 and PI20/00413 to MP], the GAIN, Xunta de Galicia, Spain [grant number IN607A 2016/22 to GB, ED431C-2016/015 and ED431C-2020/14 to RC, ED431C 2017/58 to SL, ED431G 2019/01 to RC and SL, and ED431C 2017/66 to MCV], MINECO, Spain [grant number MTM2017-82724-R to RC], Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Spain [grant number PID2020-113578RB-100 to RC], and the Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases [REIPI RD16/0016/006 to GB]. The work was also supported by the European Virus Archive Global (EVA-GLOBAL) project that has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 - Research and Innovation Framework Programme under grant agreement no 871029. SR-F was financially supported by REIPI RD16/0016/006, KC-P by IN607A 2016/22 and the Spanish Association against Cancer (AECC) and JAV by IN607A 2016/22. Funding for open access charge: Universidade da Coruña/CISUG

EDAR Bens S.A.; INV04020

EDAR Bens S.A.; INV12120

EDAR Bens S.A.; INV05921

Xunta de Galicia; IN607A 2016/22

Xunta de Galicia; ED431C-2016/015

Xunta de Galicia; ED431C-2020/14

Xunta de Galicia; ED431C 2017/58

Xunta de Galicia; ED431G 2019/01

Xunta de Galicia; ED431C 2017/66