Real-Time Monitoring and Forecasting Ice Layer Thickness Growth Rate and Grip Loss on a Road Network During Winter Storm Events
2024
Emami Tabrizi, Sepideh | Hippi, Marjo | Sullivan, James | Farghaly, Hani | Gharabaghi, Bahram | Ilmatieteen laitos | Finnish Meteorological Institute | 0000-0003-4750-1470
Winter storm severity, road surface conditions, traffic volume, and vehicle speed can influence the risk of winter-related vehicular crashes. The severity of a winter storm depends on many climatic factors, including precipitation type, intensity and duration of the storm, wind speed, air temperature, and pavement surface temperature. The rapid growth of snow and ice layer thicknesses on the road surface significantly reduce the grip between tires and the road surface, leading to hazardous travel conditions. Our investigation shows that vehicular crash rates in winter months have an inverse linear relationship with the 10th percentile grip statistics, which is a function of how quickly the road was plowed and salted and the bare pavement conditions regained. We found a logarithmic relationship between the ice and snow layer thicknesses and the grip loss. We developed a new model for forecasting ice layer thickness growth rate as a function of the relative humidity, dewpoint temperature, and pavement temperature. Real-time monitoring and forecasting the spatial and temporal variability of the grip on a road network can help road authorities to better optimize the salt application strategy for a given winter storm event and prioritize the timing and frequency for the deployment of their fleet of winter maintenance vehicles on different salt routes to minimize vehicular crash rates.
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