Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change
Stella, Tommaso | Webber, Heidi | Olesen, Jørgen, E | Ruane, Alex, C | Fronzek, Stefan | Bregaglio, Simone | Mamidanna, Sravya | Bindi, Marco | Collins, Brian | Faye, Babacar | Ferrise, Roberto | Fodor, Nándor | Gabaldón-Leal, Clara | Jabloun, Mohamed | Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian | Lizaso, Jon, I | Lorite, Ignacio, J | Manceau, Loic | Martre, Pierre | Nendel, Claas | Rodríguez, Alfredo | Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita | Semenov, Mikhail, A | Stratonovitch, Pierre | Ewert, Frank | Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) | Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague] (CAS) | Aarhus University [Aarhus] | iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change ; Aarhus University [Aarhus] | NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) | Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) | Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria = Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA) | Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI) ; Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence (UniFI) | James Cook University (JCU) | UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA) | Centre for Agricultural Research [Budapest] (ATK) ; Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MTA) | Instituto Andaluz de Investigación y Formación Agraria y Pesquera (IFAPA) | Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR) | Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) | Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE) ; Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) | University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam | Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha = University of Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM) | Rothamsted Research ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) | Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz (INRES) ; Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn | International Wheat Yield Partnership (IWYP115 Project). | FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (2815ERA01J). | FACCE MACSUR project by Innovation Fund Denmark and by the SustES project—Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797), | Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) through Designing Future Wheat [BB/P016855/1] and Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Systems [NE/N018125/1] | FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the Franch National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE). | German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) through the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE), (2851ERA01J) for FACCE MACSUR, the German Research Foundation under Germany’s Excellence Strategy, EXC-2070—390732324—PhenoRob.
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Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Английский. While the understanding of average impacts of climate change on crop yields is improving, few assessments have quantified expected impacts on yield distributions and the risk of yield failures. Here we present the relative distribution as a method to assess how the risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress (measured in terms of return period between yields falling 15% below previous five year Olympic average yield) responds to changes of the underlying yield distributions under climate change. Relative distributions are used to capture differences in the entire yield distribution between baseline and climate change scenarios, and to further decompose them into changes in the location and shape of the distribution. The methodology is applied here for the case of rainfed wheat and grain maize across Europe using an ensemble of crop models under three climate change scenarios with simulations conducted at 25 km resolution. Under climate change, maize generally displayed shorter return periods of yield failures (with changes under RCP 4.5 between −0.3 and 0 years compared to the baseline scenario) associated with a shift of the yield distribution towards lower values and changes in shape of the distribution that further reduced the frequency of high yields. This response was prominent in the areas characterized in the baseline scenario by high yields and relatively long return periods of failure. Conversely, for wheat, yield failures were projected to become less frequent under future scenarios (with changes in the return period of −0.1 to +0.4 years under RCP 4.5) and were associated with a shift of the distribution towards higher values and a change in shape increasing the frequency of extreme yields at both ends. Our study offers an approach to quantify the changes in yield distributions that drive crop yield failures. Actual risk assessments additionally require models that capture the variety of drivers determining crop yield variability and scenario climate input data that samples the range of probable climate variation.
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