The DPSIR Approach for Coastal Risk Assessment under Climate Change at Regional Scale: The Case of Apulian Coast (Italy)

In the present paper, the coastal risk is assessed, at a regional scale, to produce a risk map that will help to prioritize policies and economic resources in coastal management and planning activities. The DPSIR method is here used taking into account processes and cause/effect relationship between Drivers and Pressures, which induce an alteration of actual State and, hence, Impacts on the environment, society and economy. The study area is located in South Italy (Apulia region), where the Risk Index is calculated and mapped for all municipalities facing the Adriatic and Ionian Seas. Both coastal Vulnerability and Exposure Indexes are firstly calculated according to the procedure suggested in the EUrosion project (EU model) as the product of specific indicators describing the state of coastal zones, their natural characteristics and both natural and anthropic pressures. Based on both EU model results and knowledge of states and pressures of the study area, a new modified model is then proposed (Mod.E.M.) and final risk maps compared. The comparison shows that new Vulnerability and Exposure indexes better describe the ongoing coastal processes and pressures and allow us to identify hot-spot sites where more detailed analyses could be further focused on. The Mod.E.M. has more than just a local significance since the case study includes coastal areas with so different characteristics, that it can be easily applied to other coastal regions. Moreover, to take into account climate change effects, Risk Index is evaluated under Representative Concentration Pathways <inline-formula> <math display="inline"> <semantics> <mrow> <mi>R</mi> <mi>C</mi> <mi>P</mi> <mn>4.5</mn> </mrow> </semantics> </math> </inline-formula> and <inline-formula> <math display="inline"> <semantics> <mrow> <mi>R</mi> <mi>C</mi> <mi>P</mi> <mn>8.5</mn> </mrow> </semantics> </math> </inline-formula>, mainly affecting the sea level rise and the storm surge level.