Spatio-Temporal Variation and Future Sustainability of Net Primary Productivity from 2001 to 2021 in Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia

The Hetao Irrigation District in Inner Mongolia, a vital grain-producing region in northern China, faces growing environmental challenges. Studying net primary productivity (NPP) is essential for understanding spatiotemporal vegetation shifts and guiding locally adapted restoration and management efforts. Utilizing MOD17A3/NPP data, this study applies the Theil–Sen median trend, Mann–Kendall significance, and the Hurst index to scrutinize the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of NPP from 2001 to 2021 and forecast future changes in the area. The findings reveal cyclic temporal trends, forming a “∧” shape with initial increases followed by decreases, notably during the July to August period each year. The multi-year average NPP exhibits a slight upward fluctuation trend, averaging 172.40 gCm⁻²a⁻¹. Peaks occur approximately every three years, reaching the highest average in 2012 at 218.96 gCm⁻²a⁻¹. Spatially, NPP distribution stays consistent over the years, influenced by various land cover types, especially cropland, shaping the spatial patterns. Monthly and yearly NPP trends over the 21 years indicate a significant decrease in May and June, with other months mostly showing a non-significant increase. The Hurst index for monthly and yearly NPP changes over 21 years shows relatively high weak anti-persistence. In summary, over the past 21 years, the NPP trend in the study area has not significantly improved and is expected to decline in the future. This study offers data support and a scientific foundation for refining the carbon cycle model, quantifying vegetation carbon sequestration capacity, addressing climate change policies, and striving for carbon peak and neutrality in the Hetao Irrigation District.